2026 Business Barometer: Resilience, reinvestment and readiness take shape

At Columbia Bank, we believe understanding our customers begins with understanding the environment in which they operate. Each year, our Business Barometer Survey provides a snapshot of how small and middle market businesses are navigating opportunities, challenges and economic uncertainty, while helping us identify the trends shaping business decisions across our footprint.

Earlier this year, Columbia Bank leaders came together for our annual Business Barometer Findings Webinar to discuss the results of the 2026 Business Barometer Survey and report. The conversation featured Columbia Bank President and SEVP of Columbia Banking System Tory Nixon, EVP of Global Payments Kathryn Albright and EVP and Director of Retail Banking Dave Hansen, who shared their perspectives on what the findings reveal about business sentiment, investment priorities and emerging risks.

The report itself includes two statistically valid surveys, one for smaller enterprises with up to $10 million in annual revenue, and one for middle market businesses with annual revenue between $10 million and $500 million.

One theme stood out above all others: despite continued uncertainty, businesses remain remarkably resilient.

Here are four key takeaways from the discussion:

1. Small business optimism is making a strong comeback

One of the most notable findings from this year's survey was the significant rise in small business optimism. After lagging behind middle market companies in recent years, small business confidence has rebounded and now closely matches middle market sentiment, which is still strong.

Despite ongoing concerns around inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events and tariffs, business owners appear increasingly confident in their ability to navigate uncertainty. Panelists noted that after several years of disruption, many businesses have developed the flexibility and resilience needed to adapt and move forward. That confidence is also reflected in stronger expectations for demand, revenue and profitability over the next 12 months.

2. Businesses are investing in efficiency before making bigger moves

Compared with last year, business leaders are more likely to prioritize investing in their companies rather than cutting costs. At the same time, many remain cautious about major expansion plans, preferring to wait for greater clarity around economic conditions before making large commitments.

In the meantime, businesses are focusing on strengthening core operations. According to Kathryn Albright, many organizations are improving cash flow management, evaluating working capital needs, automating manual processes and digitizing payment operations. These improvements can increase flexibility, unlock liquidity and help businesses move quickly when growth opportunities arise.

3. AI is both the biggest opportunity and the biggest question mark

Artificial intelligence emerged as the top investment priority for both small and middle market businesses, highlighting just how quickly adoption has accelerated.

Businesses are increasingly using AI to automate repetitive tasks, improve reporting, analyze data and create operational efficiencies. What was once viewed as an emerging technology is now becoming part of everyday business operations, with the cost of entry being relatively low.

At the same time, survey respondents identified AI as a top concern. Security, data governance and responsible implementation remain key considerations as businesses expand their use of AI tools. Panelists emphasized that the goal should be using AI to enhance employee productivity and improve the work experience, while maintaining strong safeguards around sensitive information. The consensus was that businesses should proceed cautiously while maintaining strong data governance.

4. Fraud remains a major threat, while tariff concerns are easing

Seven in ten businesses reported experiencing fraud losses during the past year, underscoring the importance of strong fraud prevention practices. Fake vendor scams and business email compromise were among the most common threats discussed during the webinar.

Panelists also encouraged businesses to strengthen payment controls, verify vendor changes and continue moving away from manual processes, including paper checks, whenever possible. However, it’s critical to continue to have strict controls in place, especially with regard to instant payments. In the event of a fraudulent transaction, controls are key to tracking payments and retrieving them before they’re sent.

The discussion also touched on tariffs. While tariffs remain a concern for many companies, especially on the West Coast, their impact appears less severe than many businesses anticipated a year ago. Instead, businesses are increasingly focused on managing the uncertainty tariffs create and adjusting their planning, forecasting and sourcing strategies accordingly.

The 2026 Business Barometer findings highlight a business community that remains cautious but confident. By focusing on efficiency, embracing new technologies and staying vigilant against risk, businesses are positioning themselves to succeed even in an uncertain environment.

Want to learn more? Download the 2026 Business Barometer Report or watch the webinar recording below to explore the findings in greater detail.